COVID-19 Transmission in Connecticut: GIS Mapping of the First Three Months of the Pandemic

Abstract:

As the COVID-19 virus made its way across the United States in the spring of 2020, Connecticut was among the most severely impacted states. Previous theories have suggested that these initial impacts can be attributed to Connecticut’s close proximity to New York State, the epicenter of the disease during this time. Prior to the pandemic, there were close to 50,000 Connecticut residents commuting into New York for work with many claiming to use a railroad system as their primary means of travel. This study was established to investigate COVID-19 transmission trends in Connecticut. Specific interest was given to the possibility that transmission was coming from New York State, especially New York City. The primary question during this study was does it appear that COVID came to Connecticut via New York and if it did, how did it happen. From this study, a gradual increase in COVID-19 cases was seen beginning in the Western portion of the state, suggesting transmission came from New York. The rapid rise in cases in the Stamford, Norwalk, and Danbury areas, which are known to have many commuters going into New York, further confirmed New York transmission likelihood. Continual case increases in areas surrounding well-known railroad and highway routes into New York City demonstrated the great impact that transportation had in aiding the spread of COVID-19. Results also conclude that by mid-May, COVID-19 was fully established in Connecticut causing any patterns after this point to be inconclusive when aiming to establish an initial source of transmission.  

Keywords: COVID-19, Connecticut, transmission trend, New York, pandemic

Authors: