Early-stage real estate dynamics in the COVID-19 pandemic: A geospatial analysis of New York's MSA

Abstract:

            COVID-19 has affected all aspects of global activity and has since reshaped and restructured society itself. In particular, real estate has experienced numerous changes in composition since March of 2020. This study examined the effects of this pandemic on the real estate market in one of the world’s most influential metropolitan areas, New York. Real estate value dynamics in New York City’s metropolitan statistical area (MSA) were investigated through geographically weighted regressions (GWRs) on the six time intervals following the outbreak in the United States. The analysis indicated that certain characteristics, including population density and distribution, racial diversity, transportation accessibility, and education provide indications of the effect of an external shock such as COVID-19 on real estate dynamics of a given group or area. This analysis also suggested that urban exodus could be a response to an external shock like the pandemic. This study helps develop a better understanding of external shocks similar in nature to COVID-19 and helps better prepare society for the ramifications of such events in the coming future.

Keywords: COVID-19, Real Estate, GWR, New York, New York City, MSA

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